New Project

I am now the Membership Coordinator for the Brevard County Young Democrats! We have a new blog called Grassroots Brevard. I'll probably be shutting this blog down, eventually, but all the content will be saved.

So, please, check out Grassroots Brevard, the official blog of the Brevard County Young Democrats!

WFIT, Public Radio, and Democracy Now!

With Conservatives holding an almost absolute stranglehold on traditional media, especially political broadcast radio, it's comforting to know that independent media and public radio is active around the country, even in our own backyards.

WFIT, out of Florida Tech, is an NPR station serving southern Brevard and northern Indian River counties.

WFIT airs several interesting programs, including the aggressively progressive independent radio show Democracy Now!

Democracy Now! focuses on human rights, foreign policy, and the failure of traditional media sources to accurately report on all aspects of the Iraq war.

The host, Amy Goodman, is an eloquent and persuasive advocate for a freer, more democratic media(among many other pressing issues).

“Journalism is the only profession explicitly protected by the U.S. Constitution, because journalists are supposed to be the check and balance on government. We're supposed to be holding those in power accountable. We're not supposed to be their megaphone. That's what the corporate media have become.”

---Amy Goodman

I encourage readers to check out Democracy Now's documentary, INDEPENDENT MEDIA IN A TIME OF WAR.

The documentary may be viewed online in Real Player or purchased in DVD or VHS versions.

Some more information on Democracy Now!

WFIT's program schedule.

You can support WFIT by donating your old cellphones.

Sorry about the haitus

The last few weeks of the semester were extremely hectic for me. Then I found a new, better-paying, more enjoyable job and put some effort acclimating to it.

I'll be posting at least once or twice a week from now on.

Martinez, Abramoff, RNC ménage à trois?

As noted previously, U.S. Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) has been selected to (partially) head the RNC. It appears, however, that Martinez's Abramoff connection may interfere with his usefulness to the RNC.

From TPM Muckraker:

The RNC won't vote to approve Martinez until January. But we hear that new revelations about Martinez's ties to the now-imprisoned Abramoff are due to be released before that happens. If that happens, and it jeopardizes Martinez's bid to lead the GOP, the party could face some serious questions about why it can't seem to find a qualified, muck-free leader.

As we've noted before, Abramoff had aggressively courted Martinez when he was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development on behalf of his tribal clients. In his guilty plea, Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) admitted to lobbying Martinez on Abramoff's behalf. And when Martinez launched his Senate bid in 2004, Abramoff co-chaired a fundraiser that netted him $250,000. Martinez has said that he never met Abramoff when he was Secretary of HUD. But it seems there's more to that tale.

(emphasis mine)

It's interesting to see how this will play out. What's already known about Martinez's Abramoff connection is bad enough, one can only imagine what may be released in the future. Though, now that many of Abramoff's Republican friends have been shamefully voted out of office, they may be more inclined to make a deal with investigators (who are doubtless pursuing corrupt former Congressmen more quickly than those who remain in power). Who knows what these ex-Reps may say or who they may implicate? If Martinez gets shot down as RNC chair due to Abramoff connections it will damage both the RNC and Martinez...and by extension (one hopes) the Republican party of Florida.

“Abstinence Only” Proponents in HSS Dumb as Posts

From TPMmuckraker:

This is kind of fun. In a new report on publicly-funded abstinence programs, a government watchdog charged that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) allows programs to distribute inaccurate sex information to kids, and suggested the agency clean up its act.

But in its defense, HHS argued that it doesn't know how to tell whether something is "scientifically accurate."

Perhaps they don't know what "scientifically accurate" means because they're uneducated, inexperienced partisan shills appointed only because of their political ties to the Bush administration? Or maybe it's just a general disdain for science that's unfortunately prevalent among present-day Republicans? Or both?

The "abstinence only" movement has to be one of the most damaging exercises in mass stupidity in history. Teenagers will drive cars. Teenagers will have sex. There's no stopping it, but there is a choice: educate teenagers about sex and save lives, or don't; prevent teen abortions, or don't.

Abstinence Only doesn't work.

Anywhere.

Brevard County, unfortunately, has an "abstinence-based" sexual education program attached to the mandatory high school life management course (I graduated from this school system). Basically, it is "abstinence only" with the caveat that students can ask the instructor questions about sex. I'm sure students are just itching to do that in front of their peers.

In my freshman year of high school, a speaker came into our life management class to talk about "abstinence." She told us a story about how a couple set to wed the next day couldn't wait and had sex that night. According to her story, the man died in a car accident on the way home that night. The woman became pregnant. This, she affirmed, shows that you must always wait until marriage.

Of course, I was left wondering how this story would be any less tragic if the man had died the day after the wedding instead of the day before. I could only surmise there was a strong religious undercurrent to her story, as if God was punishing the couple.

These kinds of fear tactics do not lead to fewer teenagers having sex. They lead to fewer students trusting adults in positions of authority when they are in most need of information.

Some thoughts on the next election cycle

The recent elections have given progressives in Florida a solid moral boost. The question is, how can we capitalize on this increase of enthusiasm? How can we further push the progressive agenda? How can we bring Florida up to par with the change that has swept through the rest of the nation?

To better answer these questions, I will establish the stages of a well-run progressive campaign leading up to and through 2008.

1. Creating a favorable political environment -

This means putting the strongest progressive/Democratic issues squarely in the public eye. The process has already begun on a national level, as Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi has promised action on a number of legislative goals with wide public support, such as raising the minimum wage.

Floridians must also work hard to champion our progressive values, especially those that are intensely popular. These include: raising the federal minimum wage, cutting student loan interest rates, lowering the price of tuition, instituting a Universal Healthcare system, strengthening Medicare, and calling for the phased redeployment of U.S. troops in Iraq. Let's get these issues out there.

It is important to start early because many minds are slow to change. Starting a year, a month, or two days later than we could have means lost votes and less change.

Some strategies:

• Make sure every race in every county and district has a Democratic candidate. Democrats do best when other Democrats are running up and down the ticket.

• Provide early seed money to Democratic challengers

• Register young voters! The youth vote went 60-38 for the Democrats in 2006. We must build on this success in 2008

• Shore up the Democratic base with real progressive rhetoric, not DLC-type equivocation

• Send letters to the editor on issues favorable to progressives

2. Making the Case

We must be strong and forceful with all of our ideals, even if they are not as popular as those listed above. If a right-wing pundit labels you a "liberal," don't sit there and squirm, respond this this Kennedy quote:

"....if by a liberal they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people - their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, their civil liberties....if that is what they mean by a liberal then I am proud to be a liberal."
---President John F. Kennedy

The last decade has shown that perpetually playing to the imaginary "center" will never work. Americans want a clear choice. Progressives own the vast majority, if not the entirety, of the issues most important to Americans today. We are in the mainstream of American public opinion, no matter how much the right-wing punditocracy may object. Our job is to convince others that they share the same values we do. The biggest mistake progressives have made is to fall into the trap the right has set up for them where the supposed "center" seems to move further right year after year. We have now seized the national momentum, we must use it wisely.

As the future presidential race heats up with party nominations, we have an unprecedented opportunity to have our voices heard. This is the time the vast majority of minds will be made up. We must aggressively court the independent voter. We must consistently lay out our policy agendas in a manner understandable to the lay public. We must never turn down the opportunity to take part in public discussion.

3. Getting out the Vote

Florida, like many other states, consists of a few heavily populated Democratic areas surrounded by a geographically much larger, but less densely populated, sea of Republican red. Getting out the vote in Democratic areas like Miami, Orlando, Gainesville, etc. is incredibly important. We must also target smaller Democratic areas throughout the state and keep voter demographics in mind. When I phone banked for the Jim Davis campaign, I remember our GOTV lists were filled with voters who were over the age of 70. The fact is, seniors already vote in record numbers. We must arrange our resources to have the maximum impact. This means using demographics to target voters who are a) likely to vote Democratic and b) most in need of that extra push to go out and vote. For example, instead of simply taking a random GOTV phone-banking list of all registered Democrats in an area, the call lists should be arranged according to a priority that would resemble something like this:

1. Young female voters (18-30) in targeted precincts
2. Young male voters (18-30) in targeted precincts
3. Female voters (31-55) in targeted precincts
4. Male voters (31-55) in targeted precincts
5. All other young female voters (18-30)
6. All other young male voters (18-30)
7. Seniors in targeted precincts
8. All other female voters (31-55)
9. All other male voters (31-55)
10. All other senior voters

I've started compiling a list of possible projects Floridian bloggers can take part in to help our side win in 2008. Two years still remain, of course. I'm off collect my thoughts.

Senator Martinez to chair RNC

In keeping with a new Republican tradition, the RNC will continue to be headed by a member of a minority most alienated by conservatives. According to the Washington Post, Hispanic Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) will replace gay RNC head Ken Melhman.

In completely unrelated news, the Hispanic vote was key to last Tuesday's Democratic victory. Hispanics sided with Democrats 69 to 29 percent.

Brevard County GOP in Decline?

A new Florida Today article says the Brevard GOP is the weakest in decades.

From the article:

To be sure, the GOP still is the dominant party here: 142,000 registered Republicans compared with 115,000 Democrats. And Brevardians favored far more Republican candidates than Democrats on Tuesday.

But the total margin of victory in Brevard for Republicans in federal and statewide races was 5.6 percent, down from 19 percent two years ago and from 24.2 percent in 2002.

The article goes on to point out that this election is the first in a decade where Brevard voters have favored more than one Democrat in a statewide race (Nelson and Sink). The Congressional races were the tightest they've been since 1994.

These are encouraging signs. Of course, there is still a massive amount of work to be done, but there is also great reason for optimism.

Gas Price Coincidence?

Gas is on the rise again. I don't buy that this is all market-driven. Even if that's true to an extent, there is an obvious effort on the part of oil companies to manipulate consumers' perceptions.

Apparently, gas prices are tied not only to elections, but also Senate hearings (from link above):

Phillip Miller, an analyst for New York Global Securities, hinted at that theory in a recent market report, recommending investors buy oil stock and oil futures before the election.

"We believe that the last three major declines in the price of oil coincided with various U.S. senatorial hearings (on fuel prices) and expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. midterm elections," Phillip Miller wrote in a recent market report. "We expect that, following the current U.S. elections, the price of oil will again rise, testing the tolerance of the new Congress."

(emphasis mine)

This should make things very interesting when the new Democratic Congress convenes in January.

Election 2006 Analysis: Florida

An Opportunity for More Change

The 2006 elections yielded mixed results for Florida Democrats. Great gains were made, but they fell behind many expectations. We reelected Bill Nelson (D) to the United States Senate, but we fell short of electing a Democratic governor. We have a new Democratic Chief Financial Officer, but the majority of statewide offices are still held by Republicans. We made gains in the state legislature, but we are still outnumbered in both chambers. The biggest gain came from the U.S. House seats. Only four districts in the whole Southeast region flipped—two of them were in Florida. Another one is currently contested, and might end up in a recount.

Below I will examine our gains and losses while making suggestions for future strategies.

U.S. House Delegation

First, our victories:

FL-16 (map) (R+2)

This race was catapulted to national status when disgraced Republican Rep. Mark Foley was accused of inappropriate communication with young pages. Foley resigned, but because of Florida election law his name remained on the ballot. Democrat Tim Mahoney went from likely loser to superstar.

While Foley’s name remained on the ballot, Joe Negron was nominated by the state Republican Party to take his place in the event Foley won. The GOP subsequently launched a massive voter education campaign to notify voters of the change. A court ruling also allowed neutral notices of the switch to be placed at polling places at the option of the individual election supervisors.

The final vote was 49-48 for Mahoney, or a 4,404 vote margin. Many conservatives claim Mahoney will simply be a one-term wonder and voters in FL-16 will elect Joe Negron in 2008.

I think this assessment ignores many key points:

1. The Republican PVI in this district is fairly small (+2)

2. Ruling out Mahoney for a second term largely ignores the power of incumbency and his obvious fundraising advantage

3. Voters in FL-16 have been shown more than anyone else the corruption present in the Republican Party

4. Finally, election notices were posted informing voters that a vote for Foley counted for Negron. So while having Foley’s name on the ballot did play a role in Negron’s defeat, it was minimal.

The bottom line in this district: Tim Mahoney’s fate is by no means decided in 2008. The power of incumbency coupled with the low Republican PVI may keep him in Congress for many years to come. The outcome of the next race will be intimately dependent on the national mood in 2008, and whether or not the Democratic Presidential nominee will help Mahoney.

One additional thing is clear: Mahoney must work hard to turn out Democratic voters in the heavily blue eastern (D+14) part of his district in 2008.

Long-term projection – Tossup (as long as Mahoney stays in)

FL-22 (map) (D+4)

In a historic battle, Democrat Ron Klein beat long-term incumbent Republican Clay Shaw by 51-47. This district leans Democratic, so it look like Ron Klein will avoid the challenges facing Mahoney and keep his seat easily. FL-22 will be an integral part of a long-term Democratic majority.

Long-term projection – Lean Dem

Note: We should continue to look for more districts in Florida with a Republican incumbent, but a small Democratic or Republican PVI. SCR will have more on that later.

Others:

FL-13 (map) (R+4)

This is Katherine Harris’ old seat, and it is only fitting for there to be serious election difficulties. On the first count, Republican Vern Buchanan beat Democratic candidate Christine Jennings by a 368-vote margin. While this is a small enough margin for an automatic recount, many of the votes were cast on electronic voting machines, making a recount impossible. Somehow precincts in Sarasota County registered 18,000 undervotes in this race. Jennings has pledged to pursue every avenue possible, including taking the results to court.

Long-term projection – depends on recount/court result

FL-15 (map) (R+4)

This district is one of the two on the Space Coast, so naturally we’ll be heavily involved in covering this race in 2008. This year long-term incumbent David Weldon won by a 56-44 margin. This was Weldon’s worst showing since he was elected to Congress in the Republican “Revolution” of 1994.

From an email by Weldon’s Democratic opponent Dr. Bob Bowman:

First, the phenomenal stats: our percentage of the votes was 9% higher than the previous Dem candidate for District 15. Our final percentage was 43.7%, a VERY respectable showing against a six-time incumbent who raised six times what we did, from his corporate friends. This was the best Democratic percentage ever against Weldon as an incumbent.

We can be very proud of our grassroots campaign, composed almost entirely of dedicated volunteers. From the beginning, we were the underdogs. For those of you who were with us back in February, you remember that even getting enough petitions to get on the ballot seemed a miracle – but we did it!

This race is winnable, especially due to some of Weldon’s completely radical stances (Weldon introduced the Terri Shiavo legislation into Congress). The two things we need are massive people-power and a moderately well financed Democratic candidate who is willing to campaign aggressively.

Long-term projection: Lean Republican

FL-24 (map) (R+3)

FL-24 is the second district on the Space Coast.

This race gained some unusual attention when a Zogby poll showed incumbent Republican Tom Feeney only two points ahead (45-43) of Democratic challenger Clint Curtis.

Clint Curtis was asked by the corrupt Rep. Tom Feeney to create a program that would flip votes in computerized election machines undetectably. Curtis has since testified against Feeney in front of Congress. Then he ran against him.

Unfortunately, he ended up losing 58-42, but was massively outspent. Also, Tom Feeney drew this district for himself when he was Florida House Majority leader Speaker .

This district may end up being more competitive in the future because of Tom Feeney’s ties to lobbyist and felon Jack Ambramoff

It was a shame Feeney’s ties to Jack were never publicized in the media, but who knows what 2008 may bring.

Long-term Projection: Lean Republican

U.S. Senate

What can I say, it was a blowout. Democrat Bill Nelson carried the day against Katherine Harris 60-38. Nelson was driven largely by his moderate image, astronaut past, and willingness to talk to his constituents.

It is imperative Bill Nelson, buoyed by sky high popularity, campaign heavily for Democratic candidates in 2008. This alone should push a few races over the top. Imagine if the map could always look this blue.

Statewide Constitutional Offices (R:3 – D:1)

Governor

Republican Charlie Crist defeated Democratic candidate Jim Davis by a healthy 52-45 margin. This race most exemplifies the challenges progressives will face in Florida for many years to come. Naturally, the Republicans lead in fundraising, gaining millions from the insurance industry. Crist began running ads against Davis right after the primary, while Davis did not get on the air until a few weeks before the election.

The only way a Democrat, running for Governor or President, can win in Florida is by instituting a massive GOTV operation in Democratic areas while microtargeting Democratic voters elsewhere in the state. Also, Democrats must work extremely hard on the voter registration front, where an increase in the youth vote can have a substantial impact. In fact, while the battle won’t be completely won on the registration front, it can certainly be lost. Florida is a retirement state, so conservative-leaning seniors must be neutralized by new Democratic voters. Fighting hard on the Medicare and Social Security front is also a must.

Chief Financial Officer

Democrat Alex Sink defeated Republican candidate Tom Lee 54-46, ending the GOP’s 4-year monopoly on the Florida cabinet. This raises the total of statewide Democrats from 1 to 2. Hey, a 100% increase ain’t bad!

Attorney General

Bill McCollum beat Democrat Walter "Skip" Campbell 53-47. This was a fairly close election, but allegations that Campbell supported a bill requiring mothers putting children up for adoption to list all of their sexual partners in the newspaper probably cost him the election.

Agriculture Commissioner

Incumbent Republican Charles Bronson had an easy time with Democratic candidate Eric Copeland, beating him 57-43.

Florida Legislature

The changes here were all in the positive direction. Unfortunately, there weren’t many.

State Senate

The state senate remained static

SENATE: D=14; R=26 (no change)

State House

HOUSE: D=42; R=78 (D+7)

Not much, but these are the first state House gains for Democrats in 16 years.

Seriously contesting every U.S. House and state House/Senate race is extremely important. It is much easier for Democratic candidates to win when other Democrats are running up and down the ticket. This will be our biggest challenge in 2008 and beyond.

Space Coast Rising Launches!

Florida's New Progressive Blog

The progressive victory on November 7 was absolutely astounding. Democrats took back the House, the Senate, and a majority of governorships and state legislatures. However, while Florida made great gains, it fell short of the blue wave that swept through the rest of the nation. A nominally purple state, somehow we have some of the most conservative policies of all 50 states.

I have decided to launch this blog to strengthen the netroots progressive coalition in Florida, with an emphasis of the Space Coast. I find it ironic that the Space Coast is a leader in science and space exploration, while represented by some of the most anti-science Republican Congressmen. Representatives David Weldon and Tom Feeney may tout their ability to bring pork to their districts, but NASA’s human space exploration program has not made great gains since the Republicans took control of Congress in 1994. Our Republican Congressmen act in the space program’s favor only when it gives them a political advantage. Recently, both have bemoaned the overwhelming Democratic Congressional victory as bad for the Space Coast because they are no longer in the Majority (and thus have diminished influence on the appropriations committee).

Well, I certainly can think of a solution to that problem in 2008.

The goals of Space Coast Rising are as follows:

• To cover the political developments on the Space Coast and in Florida with a fresh, progressive perspective

• To become an active agent for change by building the progressive community and providing alternative media

• To support the new Democratic Congress

• To call for common-sense election reform in the state of Florida

• To make Florida blue in 2008 and beyond

Specifically we will:

• Support Democratic candidates running in the 24^th (map) and 15^th (map) Congressional districts of Florida

• Support statewide Democratic candidates for Florida and Federal office

• Support Democratic candidates for the state legislature on the Space Coast

• Support progressive ballot questions and oppose reactionary ones

I hope you will join me in this grassroots/netroots effort to make the Space Coast and Florida better places to live for us all.

Coming soon: A point-by-point analysis of the 2006 election in Florida.